Russia, China seek to rebound birth rates

Despite the global economic crisis, the ongoing negative impacts of climate change and conflicts, and skyrocketing prices of commodities and basic needs of living, some countries like Russia and China have recently adopted anti-depopulation policies.

However, experts see that each country has its own circumstances and reasons to rebound the growth rates of their population, even as the world population is set to reach 8 billion people.

The World Bank described the global economy as “gloomy and uncertain,” saying in its July 2022 World Economic Outlook that global economic growth is expected to decline from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022. Furthermore, the current situations in the world pushed inflation rates to rise sharply, increasing the poverty rate.

Unlike the developing countries where overpopulation is one of the reasons for conflicts and wars, China and Russia have recently announced financial incentives to encourage more births to rebound their populations. 

‘A message to Europe’

Russia, whose economy plunged into a deep recession as stated by the World Bank due to its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, announced new incentives to Russian women to have more than 10 children, in a bid to stop the drop in population growth rates nationwide.

“To protect motherhood and childhood,” Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree encouraging women to have 10 children or more to be a “Heroine Mother” and be awarded one million Russian Rubles ($16,648). 

The honorary title “Heroine Mother” dates back to the Soviet Union, as it was issued in July 1944 and lasted until the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991. The award shall be given on the first birthday of the tenth child. 

Russia is facing a demographic problem, as the growth rate of the population reached -0.27% after the number of the people registered 144.2 million since the beginning of this year, compared to 145.5 million in 2020, according to data from the World Population Review. It was also projected that the population number of the Russians would drop to 140 million by 2030, and 136 million by 2040. 

According to the latest data from the Russian statistics agency Rosstat, the number of births in June 2022 declined by 9.6% in comparison to 2021, while the mortality rate increased due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Russian aggression against Ukraine also has its own human causalities among the ranks of Russian soldiers. It was estimated that more than 5,000 Russian military personnel were killed in Ukraine since the beginning of the military attack on February 24, I Stories reported. However, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that the number of the military deaths reached 1,351 until May.

Dr. Saied Sadek, a professor in political sociology at the American University in Cairo, told Jusoor Post that the ongoing war is not the measure that pushed Russia to reinstate the Soviet-era policy. 

“The Russian decision was a type of pressure against Europe and NATO members and gives a message that the conflict may last for a long time, and to say that Russia has no problem and the country is encouraging its people to give, and we have more men ready to fight,” he said.

“It is a psychological warfare against Europe, and we may stay in this war for a long time,” Sadek said, noting that Russia, earlier the war, was working to increase its population, and their economy was good to give incentives. He added that Russia’s economy is not weak because it depends on arms sales and oil and gas exportation.

In early 2020, Putin noted that the country would support the youth who want to have a family, saying at the parliament as quoted by BBC, “We have to help young people, those who want a family life and are dreaming about children.”

‘The better economy, the more children

As for China, Sadek sees that the economy has pushed the Chinese authorities to change the country’s birth policy after it recorded a decline in the birth rate.

China, the largest number of the population worldwide with 1.4 billion people, is projected to see a decline in population, according to the World Population Review. The growth rate of the population registered 0% in 2022, compared to 0.39% in 2020. China is projected to lose its rank as the largest population in the world to India. 

The drop in the birth rate in China was attributed to Covid-19 social impacts of high costs of education and child uprising, which have pushed women to delay marriage, according to China’s National Health Commission, Reuters reported on August 22.

The Chinese State Council also agreed on August 19 to establish an inter-ministerial committee to put forth a plan adopting policies of increasing birth rates, China.org reported. The committee would focus on the improvement of maternity leave and address “the lack of affordable nursery care services.”

Thus, last week, the Chinese authorities, which ended the one-child policy that lasted from 1980 until 2016, announced “preferential housing” for couples who would have more than two children, Global Times reported.

Sadek said that China had adopted the one-child policy to curb the population increase at that time, as overpopulation was one of reasons that could impede its economic development. “The Chinese authorities found a sex ratio imbalance, as males were more than females, and that caused a problem, so they headed to reversing the decision and going back to the policy of population increase.”

During the period of the one-child policy, China managed to build a strong economy that now pushed it to reverse this policy, he continued, noting that increasing the population rate does not contradict sustainability as long as the country’s resources are available, Sadek added.

“The matter depends on the country’s capabilities, the resources and people’s awareness,” he said.