Iraq in crisis as Sadr retires: Definitive decision or maneuver?

The political crisis in Iraq reached its climax when supporters of the Sadrist movement stormed the Republican Palace and announced a curfew in Baghdad after the movement's leader Muqtada al-Sadr announced his retirement from political work.

Sadr's decision raises questions about the future of the political process in Iraq, which suffers from paralysis due to the failure to agree on forming a government.

Iraq has been living in a political crisis that has been going on for 10 months, because the parliament, the majority of which was from the Sadrist movement, did not reach the formation of a new government and the appointment of a new president of the republic.

Since July, tensions have risen between Sadr and his opponents in the Coordination Framework, which is a political alliance that includes pro-Iranian factions. The crisis began after an open sit-in bySadr's supporters at the parliament building, which was met by another sit-in by supporters of the Coordination Framework on the main road that leads to one of the entrances to the Green Zone in central Baghdad.

The situation erupted on Monday after the Shiite religious authority, Kazemal-Haeri, issued a statement criticizing Sadr and announcing that he would stop his duties as a religious authority and demanded that people obey the Iranian guide, Ali Khamenei.

According to Iraqi analysts who spoke to Jusoor Post, the coming days will be complicated and may witness an escalation and explosion of the situation. They ruled out that Sadr's decision to retire would be final.

The political process in its worst case

In this context, political analyst Mohammad Hussein said that Iraq is now experiencing the “worst case of the political process.”

Hussein believes that “the worst scenario is for the Coordination Framework to hold a parliamentary session within the efforts to appoint a new president of the republic and form a government, which may lead to an explosion of the situation.”

Although this is the natural legal path after the Sadrist movement resigned from parliament and ensured the framework for the majority, the Iraqi political analyst told Jusoor Post that“the Coordination Framework should read the messages of the Sadrist movement and not go too far and form the government.”

“The Framework should provide messages of reassurance to dissolve parliament and go to early elections to calm the angry masses,” the Iraqi political analyst added.

Meanwhile, political analyst Ali al-Baydar drew two scenarios for the “complex” scene, as he described it.

“The country has two options, either the political system collectively abandons its demands and goes for a political solution, or we are heading towards a dangerous escalation after Sadr's supporters took to the streets,” he told Jusoor Post.

He indicated that “Sadr's decision might give him more time to put pressure on his political opponents through his masses who came out to express their anger at the Shiite leader's retirement.”

Iranian role

The direct cause of the outbreak of the crisis was a public dispute between Shiite cleric Kazemal-Haeri and Muqtada al-Sadr.

Haeri issued a statement on Monday declaring not to continue as a religious authority and justifying his decision by “sickness and old age.”He demanded “obedience to the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ali Khamenei,” on the grounds that he is “the most worthy and most qualified to lead the nation and manage the conflict with the forces of oppression.” This means that Sadr must imitate Khamenei religiously.

In response, Sadr said in his statement that Haeri's retirement “was not of his own free will.” He added, “I have never claimed infallibility or diligence, not even leadership. Rather, I enjoin good and forbid evil... and I only wanted to bring them (Shiite political forces) closer to their people and to feel their suffering.”

Muqtada al-Sadr has a religious relationship with Haeri, who was a student of Muqtada's father, Mohammad al-Sadr.

Both political analysts Hussein and al-Baydar agreed that Haeri's statement came under Iranian pressure to give the US “messages that it is in control of the political and religious scene in Iraq. But Sadr is resentful of Iran's control and that the reference has become Iranian.”

The two Iraqi analysts stressed that the situation would deteriorate further if the supreme Shiite authority in Iraq, Ali al-Sistani, did not intervene and issue a statement to comment on the events, given that Iran had taken control of him.

Previous retirements of Sadr

The two analysts ruled out that Sadr was determined to quit politics permanently, especially since he had taken such a decision on previous occasions but then returned.

Sadr decided to retire from political life twice in order to “stay away from evil,” as he said. The first was on August 4, 2013, and lasted a month. 

The second time was in mid-February 2014, only to change his decision two years later after demonstrations by his supporters in the Green Zone carrying the same demands that they are calling for today. The demands are to form a government that includes all segments of Iraqi society instead of a government that relies on sectarian quotas.

In the recent elections, in which the Sadrist movement obtained a majority but was not sufficient to form a government, Sadr had announced his movement’s boycott in order to “save Iraq from corruption,” but he also reversed his decision.

Hussein said that Sadr “will not leave the public,” referring to the masses supporting the Sadrist movement that gathered in Baghdad and stormed the Republican Palace.

For his part, al-Baydar said,“These are like maneuvers and drew attention because Sadr had withdrawn from the elections and returned again,” adding, “Sadr's decisions cannot be relied upon and expected because this is his character within politics.”