Nord Stream gas leak: Is the environment paying the price of energy war?

Three separate leaks from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, owned by Russia, have raised talk of the strategic importance of the lines and the repercussions of that incident, which European countries have referred to as “deliberate acts of sabotage”, amid warnings of an “unprecedented climate catastrophe.”

What is Nord Stream and why is it important?

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines are run by a consortium of companies majority-owned by Russia's state-owned Gazprom.

Nord Stream 1 is the largest Russian gas pipeline to Europe in terms of quantity, which amounts to 55 billion cubic meters annually, and it runs across the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, according to BBC.

Nord Stream 2 is a second, double pipeline of the same size as the first. It was completed in 2021, but Germany refused to authorize its operation after Moscow invaded Ukraine.

The Nord Stream lines are the main carrier of Russian natural gas to Germany, Poland, and other European countries, according to the Washington Post.

The pipelines are a strategic infrastructure linking Russia with Europe. It was a focal point in the wider standoff between the two sides after the European Union imposed economic sanctions on Moscow to punish it for its invasion of Ukraine in February.

Russia cut gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 before suspending supplies entirely in August, blaming Western sanctions for causing technical difficulties. European politicians said this was an “excuse to stop gas supplies.”

The new Nord Stream 2 pipeline has not yet started commercial operations. Germany canceled a plan to use it to supply gas just days before Russia sent its forces to Ukraine in February in what Moscow describes as a “special military operation”, according to Reuters.

Speaking to Jusoor Post, Major General Abdel Moneim Ibrahim Ghaleb, a strategic expert at Nasser Higher Military Academy in Egypt, stressed the great strategic importance of the giant Nord Stream pipelines.

“The project is of great importance because gas is a strategic commodity that affects the lives of millions of Europeans and is depended on to operate factories, feed lighting and electricity stations, and supply homes with their energy needs,” he said.

As a result of these previous facts, “the strategic security of several European countries is linked to the Nord Stream project, and the infrastructure of these strategic projects must be protected so that they are not affected by sabotage,” Ghaleb added.

The incident represented “a wake-up call for the countries of the European continent to protect their vital buildings from deliberate sabotage,” the Financial Times reported.

Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at the Bruegel think-tank, emphasized that the leaks “represent a new level of Russia's energy war against Europe.”

“We should not underestimate the risk of seeing hybrid attacks on our energy infrastructure, whether those are physical or cyber attacks,”Tagliapietra told the Financial Times, adding, “We need to learn and adapt very quickly.”

Repercussions of leaks

Weeks before the leaks, the CIA warned European governments of potential attacks on undersea pipelines, according to the New York Times.

On Tuesday, the German magazine Der Spiegel reported that the United States had presented what intelligence officials call a “strategic warning” of a possible attack. It confirmed that the CIA warned Germany weeks ago of possible attacks on gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

Officials across Europe, represented by the European Union and NATO, agreed on Tuesday that the explosions under the Baltic Sea and the collapse of major natural gas pipelines from Russia to Germany were a “deliberate attack and an act of sabotage,” according to The Guardian.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki blamed Russia for the leaks. He said it was an attempt to “destabilize energy in Europe,” according to Euobserver.

On Wednesday, the Kremlin denied the veracity of these accusations, describing them as “stupid”, according to Reuters.

Laila Abdel Ghaffar, professor of international relations at the American University in Cairo, favors the theory that it is“economic sabotage and a deliberate attack.”

Speaking to Jusoor Post, she confirmed that “the beneficiary and involved party in the attack is the one who wants to ignite the energy crisis in Europe,” considering the incident “part of the economic war between Russia and the West.”

There was no “immediate impact of the attacks” on European energy supplies, but it increases the risks and deepens European anxiety about the “energy war raging between Russia and the West,” the New York Times reported.

These developments led to “deepening uncertainty about European energy security amid rising prices and fears of running out of fuel during the winter,” the newspaper added.

Indeed, gas prices in Europe rose after the news of the leaks. Although prices are still lower than their peak for this year, they are two hundred percent higher than they were in early September last year, according to Reuters.

Therefore, Major General Ghaleb believes that “Russia is likely to be involved in the deliberate sabotage act as part of the escalation against Europe as a result of its support for Kyiv.” He described the incident as “more Russian pressure against European countries.”

Ghalebalso pointed to the “economic, political and military repercussions of that incident, as it was directed against a civilian target that affects the lives of millions.” At the same time, he spoke about the “serious environmental dimension of the leak incident.”

An 'unprecedented' climate catastrophe

Although the two lines are not currently operating, they contain gas, which caused bubbles to appear in the leak that was detected on the surface of seawater in the maritime economic zones of Sweden and Denmark, according to AFP.

A 700-meter-wide pool of sparkling water in the Baltic Sea caused by the rupture of Nord Stream gas pipelines represents a “climate disaster”, according to Bloomberg.

Bloomberg confirmed that the tubes contained “compressed natural gas, the vast majority of which is methane.”

Estimating the exact amount of methane that escaped into the atmosphere is a “very difficult” task, but some scientists have made calculations to reveal the truth about the repercussions of the leak.

Andrew Baxter, director of the energy strategy at the Environmental Defense Fund, estimated the amount of methane released at 115,000 tons. This is equivalent to about 9.6 million tons of carbon dioxide.

The effect of that amount of methane is the same as the climate impact of emissions from “two million gasoline cars a year or two and a half times coal-fired power plants,” according to Bloomberg.

If these estimates are accurate, this amount of methane will be the largest leakage in history, and its impact will be catastrophic on the climate, according to Bloomberg.