Why is Russia mobilizing militarily on the Belarusian border with Poland?

In an unusual political situation, Belarus has officially and directly announced the nature and objectives of the movements of its forces alongside the Russian forces coming to its territory.

A number of experts and observers believe that the declaration of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday about “forming a joint force with Russia to protect the Belarusian borders in view of the growing tensions” clearly shows the existence of new challenges that have begun to float on the surface of the border with Poland.

Prior to that and under normal circumstances, the joining of Russian forces to their Belarusian counterparts was in the first place in the context of periodic military exercises between the two countries, according to Reuters.

The Belarus-Russia Union State Military Doctrine provides for the deployment of a regional group of forces during a period of increased military threat against either of them, according to Open Democracy.

The two countries enjoy close cooperation in the military-industrial fields. The treaty also stipulates the gradual trend of transformation into a unified political, economic, military, and customs system, with a single currency, market, and culture.

Experts believe that after the announcement of the formation of the joint forces and Lukashenko's statement on October 10 that “the West is pushing Kyiv to open a front against Belarus” and that NATO is studying options for a “possible aggression against Minsk,” there is no longer any doubt that the talk is about preparations for the possibility of opening a new front.

Proactive steps

Evidence for this is Lukashenko's explicit statement that the deployment of a group of Russian and Belarusian forces comes in response to the worsening situation on the western border with Poland, according to Reuters.

At the same time, he warned Kyiv of any possible attack on Belarus, before continuing in a sharp tone that his country would respond forcefully if “they touch only one meter of our lands with their filthy hands,” as he put it.

The head of the Belarusian Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, said Tuesday that the decision to deploy the joint forces was“purely defensive and necessary, as Western countries were considering attacking Belarus on that pretext.”

“In the West, unfortunately, the opinion is being implanted that the Belarusian army may enter into a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine,” he was cited as saying by the defense ministry, according to AFP.

War preparations 

A day earlier, in a remarkable scene, residents ofMinskwitnessed how the transfer of artillery units, multiple launch missile systems, as well as heavy Iskander missiles, took place along the central streets of Minsk in the western direction, according to AP.

The total number of Russian forces upon their arrival in Belarus will be about 9,000, with about 170 tanks, 200 armored fighting vehicles, and about 100 artillery and mortars of more than 100mm caliber, according to Reuters and TASS.

This comes after Minsk announced a few days ago the introduction of a system of anti-terror operations in the country due to the aggravation of the situation along the Belarusian border. After that, Belarus strengthened security measures on the border with Ukraine in response to Kyiv's proposal to deploy a mission of international observers to monitor the security situation on the border with Belarus, according to CNN and The Telegraph.

Observers and military experts toldJusoor Post about monitoring an active “militarization” of Poland. Military expert at Nasser Higher Military Academy Major General Abdel MoneimGhaleb said that in addition to the presence of 25,000 US soldiers in Poland, two-thirds of its ground forces are gathering on the borders of Belarus and the Kaliningrad region, which is the capital of the Russian province of the same name, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast.

This matter, according to Ghaleb, could lead to an escalation in this part of the state border, which is linked to a federal treaty with Russia.

In addition, an escalation is taking place in the southern parts of the border where the Belarusian border with Ukraine is located, the military expert told Jusoor Post.

He added that “Kyiv places on its border with Belarus about 15,000 soldiers of the Ukrainian armed forces in addition to other military formations, bringing this number to about 25,000.

Since “Russia does not have such a number of forces in this part of the border, it will seek to deploy its own operational and tactical forces in Belarus,” he said.

In Ghaleb's opinion, the deployment of a joint group of troops from the two countries will undoubtedly affect the security of Belarus.

He explained that “the opponents of Russia and Belarus now will think carefully before attacking Belarus or even military intervention to help Ukraine unless they are prepared to receive a massive strike with high-precision weapons or tactical nuclear weapons in response.”

For his part, Karim Abdel Hadi, a professor of political science at the British University in Egypt, pointed out that “the decision to deploy troops in Belarus may have something to do with Poland talking again about its desire to acquire nuclear weapons.”

He told Jusoor Post that “the air defense of Belarus and Kaliningrad covers almost the whole of Poland, and any plane taking off with a nuclear bomb will be directly targeted because it is impossible to move such a bomb unnoticed.”

On the other hand, the political science professor pointed out that “Minsk takes Kyiv's threats seriously and is preparing for the worst eventuality, especially after Ukrainian President VolodymyrZelensky demanded a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Russia and his attempt to quickly join NATO to drag it into a direct military confrontation.”

What increased Belarus's apprehension about Ukraine, according to Abdel Hadi, is “Kyiv's recent bombing of the Donbas River and the attack on the Crimean Bridge.”