War, energy crisis detract from climate issue ahead of COP27

The intensity of security, military, and political conflicts at the international level is accelerating, leaving behind unprecedented crises that the world has not witnessed since the end of World War II.

In light of these events, observers warn of a decline in interest in the issue of climate change despite its fate for all people, even as the 27thUnited Nations Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP27)is set to begin in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt this November.

International priorities and global headlines are retreating from focusing on the climate issue, as a number of other priority issues are currently being highlighted, such as the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war and its aftermath of crises in the energy and food supply sectors, as well as the return of the possibilities of using nuclear and atomic weapons, the fierce competition between Beijing and Washington, arms races, and militarization.

What is happening now is the opposite of the large crowd and interest that accompanied the previous edition of the same conference in Glasgow, Scotland. This resulted in the success of COP26, which approved in its final charter the “state of emergency and extreme alertness of human activities” regarding climate change, with the urgent need to work “in this critical decade” to reduce carbon emissions.

While most international estimates warn of the aggravation of the environmental and economic costs of global climate change, the world energy crisis has obstructed the international transition to clean energy sources. This is due to the return of the widespread use of fossil fuels and traditional energy sources in an attempt to save national economies from the unprecedented waves of stagflation that are hitting them, which increases carbon emissions and thus concerns about the future of the Earth.

Climate fears recede

In the face of this turbulent global environment, opinion polls documented the decline in global fears of climate change in the face of the “Covid-19 pandemic and more urgent issues and problems such as health, livelihoods, and economic crises.”

A survey conducted by the Gallup Foundation, the results of which were published last week on October 19, stated that global concerns about climate change had declined. Less than half of those surveyed believe climate change poses a “very serious threat” to their countries over the next 20 years, with the study based on more than 125,000 interviews in 121 countries.

While the survey showed that only 20% of respondents from China (the world's largest emitter) believed climate change was a very serious threat, a decrease of three percentage points from the previous survey in 2019, while awareness of climate change rose slightly in the United States (the second largest air polluter in the world) in 2021 to 51.5%.

As for the regions exposed to the greatest environmental risks, they are on average the least concerned about climate change, as 27.4% of respondents in the Middle East and North Africa and 39.1% of South Asians expressed their concern about these risks.

According to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on April 28, the Russian-Ukrainian war, which has been raging since February, has exacerbated a “three-dimensional crisis: a food crisis, an energy crisis, and an economic crisis,” which has had devastating effects “on the world’s most fragile people, countries and economies.”

The issues of food security and energy have always preoccupied many of the world's governments because of their direct impacts on economic and social conditions. The absence of one of them may lead to instability, unrest, and sometimes mass migrations.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Russian-Ukrainian war led to a return to “highly polluting” energy sources, in contrast to previous commitments to switch to clean energy.

IPCC pointed out that in the face of the loss of oil and gas supplies, as well as high prices, many countries have turned to a cheap but highly polluting energy source: coal.

In recent years there have been international commitments to move forward with a plan to reduce dependence on coal. At the Glasgow climate summit, many countries called for a complete coal ban, but after the Russian-Ukrainian war, plans to close coal plants were halted.

According to a previous report by the Guardian newspaper, the war and the energy crisis that it left behind pushed the fossil fuel companies towards new explorations and drilling.

The newspaper pointed out that about 200 fossil fuel projects have entered into the development stages in recent months. It is expected that billions of tons of carbon emissions will be emitted into the air if they become operational, or the equivalent of 18 years of current emissions. This would defeat the goal of limiting the Earth's temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above its pre-industrial level.

In 2015, the Paris climate agreement committed countries to keep the average increase in the planet's temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and aimed to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Exceeding 1.5 degrees, the scientists said, risks unleashing even more severe impacts of climate change on humans, wildlife, and ecosystems.

Preventing this requires halving atmospheric CO2 emissions by 2030 from their 2010 level and reducing them to net zero by 2050.

According to the BBC, the temperature of the planet is already about 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than it was before the industrial revolution. The temperature has been higher in each of the last four decades than in any decade since 1850.

According to a study published by the Chatham House Research Institute in London, since COP26 in Glasgow, the attention of a number of influential world governments has deviated from the climate crisis due to the effects of accelerating international events that exacerbated the challenges at the national level.

The Institute explained that at the European level, political strategies in dealing with war and huge price increases raised questions about energy security, affordability, and how to better support each other at a time when most countries of the old continent are facing a cost-of-living crisis caused by energy to a large extent with the approaching winter season.

Higher energy prices have provided space for those who argue that the costs of moving to “zero emissions” are an additional and unnecessary burden at a time when many families and businesses are struggling to pay their energy bills, according to Chatham.

Catastrophic climatic consequences

In view of the increasing environmental and economic costs of climate change globally, and the exacerbation of the crisis with the accelerating geopolitical changes around the world, recent studies have warned of the catastrophic repercussions of the continued exacerbation of the climate change crisis.

A study conducted by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace in 228 countries and territories concluded that 750 million people around the world are currently affected by malnutrition, the consequences of climate change, increased inflation, and the Russian war in Ukraine, which will exacerbate food insecurity in the future.

The study showed that more than 1.4 billion people in 83 countries face “water stress”, with more than 20% of the population not finding a source of clean drinking water.

According to the Institute for Economics and Peace, air pollution costs the world $8.1 trillion annually and causes between six and nine million deaths. The average cost of natural disasters globally has reached $200 billion annually, which is a fourfold increase over the 1980s.

Meanwhile, a group of researchers around the world published a study warning that human-caused climate change “at least 20 times increased the likelihood of drought in the northern hemisphere.”

This study was published in the first week of October by the World Weather Attribution Network, which includes a number of pioneering scientists in the field of study of the causal relationship between extreme natural phenomena and climate change.

The study said, “Climate change caused by human activity has increased the likelihood of surface droughts by at least five times, and the likelihood of agricultural and environmental droughts occurring by at least 20 times.”

Several European countries suffered from the drought phenomenon in the summer, starting with France, where rivers dried up, and several regions were forced to impose a rationing system for water use. Parts of the United States and China were also affected by this phenomenon.

The repercussions of this drought were reflected in the agricultural sector, as crops declined at a time when the world is witnessing a rise in food prices.

The drought also led to forest fires and disruptions in electricity production, especially hydraulic and nuclear power.

In contrast, last year's heavy rains inundated China and Western Europe, causing hundreds of deaths.

Hundreds more were killed when temperatures in the Pacific Northwest reached record levels.

Greenland has seen massive glaciers melt. Forest fires caused great losses in the Mediterranean region and in Siberia. Unprecedented drought-hit regions in Brazil.

“Drought and global change in rainfall have led to crop failures and increased food prices, which means food insecurity and food deprivation for the poor,” says UNICEF.

This can lead to life-long impacts as well as destroy livelihoods, increase migration and conflict, and curb opportunities for children and young people.”

Andrew Stanley also wrote in the International Monetary Fund's Journal of Finance and Development that the Russian-Ukrainian war and Russia's conflict with the West drove food prices to all-time highs as a result of disruptions to commodity flows from two of the world's largest exporters of wheat and other basic consumer goods (Russia and Ukraine). 

In light of the decline in interest in the climate issue, the United Nations Climate Change Panel has warned that the failure of countries to meet their commitments to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions, build resilience and adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change portends catastrophic repercussions.