How does Trump's 2024 presidential candidacy affect the Republican and Democratic parties?

Former US President Donald Trump's announcement of his candidacy for the presidency in 2024 is expected to have broad repercussions on potential Republican candidates such as Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis.

It is also believed that the decision will affect the Republican Party, which seems divided over this nomination after the disappointing results of the midterm elections.

Likewise, Trump's decision will leave its mark on the Democratic Party and President Joe Biden's expected candidacy for the presidency, amid a desire among a large segment of Americans that the 2020 elections not be repeated.

The question currently being raised in American and international political circles is what effect Trump's candidacy will have on both parties.

Early decision

Many of Trump's allies had advised him to delay announcing his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, as Republicans fear that his strong influence on the party made him responsible for the poor performance of Republican candidates in the midterm elections, according to the Washington Post. But the New York Times stated in its report that Trump ignored this advice, denying in his candidacy speech any responsibility for the poor performance of candidates in the midterm elections.

But Trump’s early candidacy announcement before the usual date, according to the New York Times, is due to his belief that his formal candidacy may help protect him from investigations pursuing him about sensitive documents found at his home in Florida, the events of the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and another case that began moving forward in New York regarding his enterprise transactions there.

But one of the main reasons for the quick decision to run was an attempt to dampen the momentum behind Florida Governor DeSantis, whose 19-point victory over his Democratic opponent in his re-election last week stunned many in the Republican Party, according to Politico.

DeSantis also appeared to be the preferred presidential candidate for a large number of Republican donors and elected officials who were fed up with Trump's control of the party, his constant disagreements, and his talk of rigging the 2020 elections.

Future of the Republican Party

It seems that what worries Republicans most after Trump's candidacy is the looming battle over the future of their party, because his haste to announce his candidacy once again carries political risks for the party and threatens to split it, according to Time magazine.

His decision sparked heated debate among Republicans about whether or not the party can thrive and regain strength under Trump's leadership, and if not, how the separation between them can happen.

Although the former president's dominance of Republican politics led to three disappointing elections for the party in a row, he still claims to be the frontrunner thanks to a devoted following of millions of supporters who have repeatedly proven their loyalty to him.

However, Trump's haste in announcing his candidacy carries the risk of backfiring. Conservative news outlets have turned against him, including Fox News and the New York Post, which mocked him on their cover last week and called him “Trumpty Dumpty” a day after it praised DeSantisas the emerging leader of the GOP, calling him “the de-future”.

An editorial in the Wall Street Journal Monday also denounced Trump. It described him as the man most likely to cause the Republican Party to lose power while giving the progressive left full power.

It appears that the division within the Republican Party is likely to worsen in the coming months. Trump kicked off the 2024 race when he called DeSantis“DeSanctimonious” at a rally in Pennsylvania in an attempt to mock him. Trump described him as an average Republican governor with good public relations, according to Fox News.

In statements published by the Wall Street Journal, Trump threatened that if DeSantis decided to run for the presidency, he would talk about things he would not be grateful to hear.

Trump also attacked Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, saying his name was strange, similar to Chinese names, and he repeated his successive attacks on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, according to CNBC.

For many Republicans, figures like DeSantis and Youngkin represent a kind of conservative politics that should be appreciated rather than derided. Republicans will be at risk in 2024 if Trump wins the nomination and focuses on punishing enemies rather than broadening his support politically.

Encouraging the bench

While opinion polls showed that Trump is less popular than President Biden, whose approval rating was very low throughout the year, Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, told the Washington Examiner that the midterm elections revealed that Trump was not as strong as people imagined him to be. Independents and moderate Democrats are likely to vote against him.

After it was likely months ago that Trump would scare off most potential rivals in the Republican Party by announcing his candidacy, there is now a greater appetite among the prominent stars of the Republican Party to compete with him, according to Anuzis.

Anuzis believes there are 20 alternative candidates who would not mind running ahead because there is a chance Trump will be defeated.

A number of elected Republicans urged the party to take the recent election results as a signal that it was time to move away from Trump. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who easily won re-election, told Washington Post that Trump's candidacy was not politically wise. 

Outgoing Maryland Governor Larry Hogan considered that Trump caused the party to lose in the last three election cycles (2018, 2020, and 2022), and it would be a mistake to nominate him and see that happen again in a fourth round, according to CNN.

Some Republicans have even begun to indicate that their party is no longer affiliated with the former president, as Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis believes that the current leader of the party is DeSantis, according to the Hill.

During an interview with the Guardian, Republican Senator Tom Cotton sought to downplay the idea that Trump is the modern-day Republican president. He pointed to a list of fellow Republicans, including DeSantis, Senator Tim Scott, and others, who he said were key leaders in the party.

Despite this, there are still supporters of Trump in the Republican Party, such as Representatives Elise Stefanik and Jim Banks, who issued statements expressing their support for him and his candidacy in the 2024 elections, according to Fox News.

In the Senate, Trump loyalists such as Republican Sens. Josh Hawley and Lindsey Graham have pushed for a delay in the Senate Republican leader's election, amid calls from Trump and others to remove Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell from office, according to CNN.

Impact on the Democrats

On the other hand, Trump's candidacy may be a lifeline for Biden. If the Democrats had suffered a major loss in the recent midterm elections, the pressure would have been stronger and more intense on President Biden to step down from completing his second presidential term in favor of a new face. Instead, the choice now rests with the president. The results of the midterm elections may remove any doubts he may have had about running for re-election, according to William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Although many lawmakers don't believe Biden should seek a second term and view a handful of senior figures in the party led by Vice President Kamala Harris as potential candidates, the president has made clear he intends to run despite some grumblings within his own party, according to the New York Post.

Trump's announcement of his candidacy came to increase Biden's insistence on repeating the 2020 confrontation that he won, especially since Trump's presence would increase the division within the Republican Party and would largely guarantee an easier victory than the last presidential election battle.

Democratic strategists believe it would be crazy to think that the Democrats would be better off competing against a candidate other than Trump and that if the Democrats want to lose the elections in 2024, they should start muddying the waters for Biden.