Sisi and Erdogan shake hands for first time: Will relations witness a breakthrough soon?

For the first time in eight years, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, shook hands on Sunday, November 20, on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.

The photo, published by the Turkish presidency on Sunday evening and shared by media agencies, showed Sisi and Erdoganspeaking with each other, with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani next to them.

Both Sisi and Erdogan sat close to each other on the platform of senior officials present at the celebration, among Arab and international leaders, with only UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres between them.

The first handshake between the two presidents came after years of tension over the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt following a popular uprising.

This step revived hopes of restoring the faltering path of normalization between the two countries after it was finally overshadowed by the divergence of positions towards files considered “fateful” for the two parties.

Step towards ‘normalization’

The Turkish president considered the rare handshake “the first step towards further normalization of relations between the two countries.” He said, during remarks made on his return flight from Qatar, that “other moves will follow that first step in order to normalize relations with Cairo,” according to Daily News Egypt.

On Monday, Anadolu Agency quoted Erdogan as saying, “I look at the matter in this way, there was no meeting between the leaders of Egypt and Turkey, and the ties that existed in the past between the two peoples are very important to us, so what prevents them from being like that again. And we have provided indications in this direction.”

He added that“Ankara's only request from Egypt is to change its approach towards Turkey's status in the Mediterranean.”

“I hope that we will move the stage that began between our ministers to a good point later through high-level talks,” Erdogan continued.

On the other hand, according to a statement published by the Egyptian presidency, its spokesman, Bassam Radi, said, “President Sisi shook hands with his Turkish counterpart, Erdogan, as mutual confirmation of the depth of the historical ties that bind the two countries and the Egyptian and Turkish peoples,” according to Ahram Online.

“It was agreed that this would be the beginning of the development of bilateral relations between the two sides,” Radi added.

Despite the Turkish president's declaration in July that “there is no reason not to hold high-level talks with Cairo,” the progress made in the path of restoring relations has witnessed a regression. Tension increased again after Ankara signed a set of new agreements in October with Libya’s Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, including oil and gas exploration in the Mediterranean waters, according to CNN and AlHurra.

In late October, through Foreign Minister SamehShoukry, Cairo announced that the exploratory sessions between Egypt and Turkey had stopped, reflecting the faltering path of normalizing relations. 

At the time, the Egyptian minister justified not resuming the course of talks with Turkey, saying that “there have been no changes in the framework of practices by Ankara.” He pointed to “Egypt's anger at the Turkish military presence in Libya,” stressing that “one of the things that raise concern is the fact that foreign forces have not left Libya yet,” according to AlAraby.

Shoukry's statements were preceded by the announcement of his Turkish counterpart, MevlutCavusoglu, that “the normalization of relations with Egypt is proceeding slowly, and we are not responsible for that,” according to TRT World.

“If Egypt is sincere in normalizing its relations with Turkey, it must take concrete steps,” Cavusoglu added, considering that “cooperation between the two countries will have positive repercussions on the region.”

Libya and Mediterranean gas: The most prominent outstanding issues

In their interview with Jusoor Post, experts and analysts agreed that Ankara is pressing the Libyan file in order to find a solution to the maritime border demarcation problem in the eastern Mediterranean region, which would allow it to have more gas exploration rights. Turkey sees drawing Cairo towards it as a gain to confront Greece, its “traditional enemy” in the region.

On the other hand, observers differed regarding the “brief talk between the two presidents” making a quick breakthrough in the path of reconciliation.

“Despite Turkey's keenness on rapprochement with Egypt, it lacks seriousness in implementing the required pledges,” said former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Hassan Haridi.

In his interview with Jusoor Post, he explained that “more than one Turkish initiative for rapprochement with Cairo took place during the last two years. This step reached its climax with the launch of exploratory talks between the two countries in the middle of last year, but they faltered due to Ankara's continued interference in Arab crises, especially the Libyan file, in which Cairo sees a red line and circumvented Egyptian demands regarding it.”

Haridi added, “We have to be cautiously optimistic about the Turkish desire to accelerate the pace of rapprochement with Egypt, especially in the face of Ankara's hesitation in resolving the outstanding issues with Cairo.”

On the issue of eastern Mediterranean gas and Ankara's demands for Cairo to have more convergence of views on this matter, Haridy made it clear that “Cairo cannot provide what Turkey desires in this file.”

He pointed out that “all the maritime border demarcation agreements that Egypt signed with eastern Mediterranean countries in recent years, especially with Greece and Cyprus, did not contradict the international law governing border demarcation operations. However, it seems that Turkey is aiming for something else, and therefore requires it first to resolve its dispute with Greece and Cyprus in this regard, not Cairo.”

For his part, Major General Abdel Monem Ibrahim Ghaleb, a strategic expert at Nasser Military Academy, believes that “the handshake may create momentum towards the path of normalizing the return of relations, but the insistence of the two countries on their divergent positions on specific issues may make the task difficult.”

In his interview with Jusoor Post, he explained, “There are largely political and economic sectors within Turkish society that urge the government to overcome obstacles in order to achieve tangible results in restoring relations with Egypt. But serious steps in this path will be the final decision.”

For her part, Maha Al-Saeed, a political science professor specializing in Turkish affairs at the British University in Egypt, believes that “the Emir of Qatar played the first handshake between Sisi and Erdogan.”

She referred to attempts led by Doha to bring views closer between the two countries since the Al Ula reconciliation agreement in January last year, which ended the boycott that lasted about four years against Qatar by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain.

In her interview with Jusoor Post, she suggested that “this handshake will lead to a near breakthrough in the normalization of relations during the coming period.” She also referred to “the possibilities of resuming the diplomatic and security exploratory talks that began in May 2021.”

According to Al-Saeed, “Cairo will move towards testing the seriousness of Turkish intentions in the outstanding issues, especially with regard to the Libyan file, which for Egypt represents a direct extension of its national security.”

“Cairo's demands regarding the Libyan file cannot be abandoned. They are represented in the speedy withdrawal of all Turkish forces stationed in the west and Ankara's cessation of interfering in Libyan affairs,” said the political science professor.

Cairo rejects Turkey's military presence in Libya within an area it considers a strategic depth for its national security. It also insists on condemning what it considers “interference by regional parties, including Ankara, in Arab issues and crises,” according to Al-Saeed.