How the Sudanese conflict affects South Sudan's economic reality and political future

Although South Sudan has been an independent country with sovereignty over its territory since its separation from Sudan on July 9, 2011, the two countries still influence each other to a great extent.

What is happening now in Sudan proves the common destiny between the two countries, as the effects of the Sudanese crisis are unfolding on multiple fronts in South Sudan.

With 1.1 million refugees, Sudan has one of the largest refugee populations in Africa, with South Sudanese accounting for more than 70% (800,000) of them, most located in the capital, Khartoum, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the outbreak of conflict in Sudan since mid-April has caused around 140,000 people to cross into South Sudan from its northern neighbor, 92% of whom are returnees. 

Indeed, this has put South Sudan's absorptive capacity under enormous strain. The economic impact of the conflict has also had an impact on the fragile humanitarian situation in the country.

Commenting on the situation, Sudanese journalist El-Amin El-Tom said that South Sudan's oil, the pillar of the country's economy, passes through Sudanese territory, so the Sudan conflict made a stark impact on the economy of South Sudan.

“Also, the sudden interruption of imports from Sudan caused basic commodities to not reach South Sudan, especially in the northern states bordering Sudan,” El-Tom said.

“The conflict has also caused the chains of imports of basic commodities from Sudan to South Sudan to stop, especially in the northern states bordering the Sudanese borders, which will force to import them from Uganda and thus increase their prices due to the cost of air transportation, especially in the autumn seasons,” said El-Tom.

Impact on upcoming elections

The impact of the Sudanese crisis is not limited to the economic side only, but also politically. Nicholas Haysom, the UN's chief envoy to South Sudan, warned of a declining focus domestically and internationally on South Sudan, which is undergoing a critical transition.

Following the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (2018) that ended the civil war, a transitional period of three years was agreed on, which would be followed by general elections in 2023. However, in 2022, the two parties agreed to move it to the end of 2024.

In a briefing to the UN Security Council last month, Haysom said, “Now is not the time to take our eyes off the ball in South Sudan. What we can learn from Sudan is how quickly hard-won peace gains can unravel.”

The UN envoy spoke about the effects of the crisis in Sudan on the implementation of the peace agreement in southern Sudan, noting in particular the impact of the conflict on the government's capacity to receive thousands fleeing violence across the northern border.

This could increase competition for scarce resources, economic hardship, pre-existing societal tensions and the proliferation of firearms.

Haysom said that South Sudan is not ready to start the electoral process, noting that the process of drafting the constitution is ten months behind schedule and that the elections are nine months late, UN News reported.