What next for Venezuela? Maduro critics fear widening crackdown

By AFP/Esteban ROJAS with Mariette LE ROUX

Venezuelans protesting President Nicolas Maduro's return to power for a highly contested third term this week said they did not want a "Cuban-style dictatorship."

But analysts say Maduro's methods borrow more from another Latin American country whose autocratic leader attended his inauguration Friday: aging Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega.

Ortega, a 79-year-old former guerrilla who toppled a US-backed dictatorship in the late 1970s, has been accused of stifling all dissent since anti-government protests in 2018 erupted and were harshly repressed.

Hundreds of critics have been jailed, while hundreds more were driven into exile and stripped of their Nicaraguan citizenship. More than 5,000 NGOs have been shut down.

Maduro claims that the mass protests that broke out after his disputed claim of electoral victory in July were part of a US plot. Similarly, Ortega claims that the 2018 demonstrations were part of a US-backed coup bid.

"Unfortunately, we are paving the way for a Nicaragua-ization of Venezuela," said Ali Daniels, director of the Access to Justice NGO.

Sharing that assessment was Phil Gunson, a Venezuela expert at the International Crisis Group think tank, who warned of a looming "Nicaragua situation, where there will be no space at all for any kind of dissent."

'Crush with a finger'

The man widely seen as the rightful winner of Venezuela's July 28 election, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, was forced into exile in September after being threatened with arrest and having a $100,000 bounty placed on his head.

While opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was barred from contesting the election, remains in the country, she has been in hiding since August.

On Thursday, Machado appeared in public for the first time in months to address a protest on the eve of Maduro's inauguration. She was briefly detained but then immediately went underground again.

"There continues to be a closure of civic space that... makes it very hard for civil society to organize and coordinate against an authoritarian government," Laura Dib, Venezuela program director at the Washington Office on Latin America, told AFP.

The clampdown appears set to intensify in the months to come.

A law adopted in November by the parliament, which is loyal to Maduro, provides for jail terms of 25 to 30 years for anyone who "promotes, instigates, requests, invokes, favors, facilitates, supports or participates in the adoption of coercive measures" against the regime -- effectively criminalizing any show of support for US-led sanctions against the government.

Individuals face fines of up to $1 million, politicians risk being barred from public office for 60 years and broadcasters could lose their licenses under the vaguely worded law, which gives the authorities wide latitude in choosing whom to punish.

"An official can crush you with a finger," Daniels said.

Maduro is also going after NGOs.

In August, parliament approved a law requiring them to declare their sources of financing, especially if they get funding from abroad, and barring them from engaging in "political" activities.

Critics have compared the legislation to the "foreign agents" law used to stifle dissent in Venezuela's arch-ally Russia over the past decade.

Also in the pipeline are an "anti-fascism" law aimed at Maduro's political opponents, whom he terms "fascists," and a constitutional reform which critics fear could see him further tighten his grip on power.

Oil vs. migrants

All eyes now are on US President-elect Donald Trump, waiting to see what strategy he will adopt toward Venezuela when he returns to the White House later this month.

During his first term, Trump imposed punishing sanctions on the country's vital oil sector and recognized opposition leader Juan Guaido as interim president in a failed bid to persuade Venezuela's military to ditch Maduro after fraud-tainted elections in 2018.

Gunson said he believed the Republican's approach this time would be "less about democracy and human rights" and more about "oil and migration," with Maduro likely to use control of illegal migration as a bargaining chip for the lifting of the oil embargo.

Rebecca Hanson of the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida said she expected Trump to take a "softer stance on Venezuela because of the immigration issue."

The next US president, she added, "has already demonstrated that he does not mind working with, and even admires, authoritarian leaders."