Serb separatist drive poses Bosnia's biggest test since 1990s war

By AFP/Rusmir SMAJILHODZIC

A relentless drive for sovereignty by the nationalist leader of Bosnia's Serbs poses the toughest test for the volatile country's stability since its bloody ethnic war 30 years ago, observers say.

Milorad Dodik, leader of Republika Srpska (RS) -- the Serb entity that forms part of the country alongside a Muslim-Croat federation -- has vowed to "go all the way" to wrest control of his territory from the central authorities.

His campaign constitutes a "security challenge" and "the most serious challenge to Bosnia-Herzegovina since the end of the war" in 1995, said Veldin Kadic, a professor of security and peace studies at the University of Sarajevo.

Dodik's institutional reforms

After years of pressure as political leader of Bosnia's Serbs since 2006, Dodik, 66, has in recent weeks put his demands into action with a series of bold institutional measures following a Bosnian court ruling against him.

These include drafting a proposed constitution that would allow for the creation of a Bosnian Serb army under his command.

In late February, the RS parliament passed a law banning the central state police and courts from operating on Bosnian Serb territory, which covers 49 percent of the country.

The laws were later suspended by Bosnia's constitutional court.

On March 13, the RS parliament adopted a further measure for the "protection of the constitutional order of Republika Srpska" along with the full draft constitution.

The latter document declares RS -- inhabited mostly by Serbs with a minority of Muslim Bosniaks and Croats -- to be "the state of the Serb people and all the citizens who live there".

It also declares that RS has a right to make "federations" with other states -- a tacit reference to its allies in Serbia.

It is scheduled to be publicly debated over the coming months and will be adopted if it receives the backing of two thirds of the parliament's members.

Anti-corruption NGO Transparency International in a statement on Friday said Dodik's camp was "taking Republika Srpska towards dictatorship" by setting up "parallel judicial and intelligence institutions".

Dodik defies courts

After the deadly 1992-1995 war that pitted Serb forces against Bosnian Muslims and Croats, the territory was divided under an international agreement into two autonomous entities: the RS and the Muslim-Croat federation.

Supposedly serving both parts, "Bosnia-Herzegovina has a judicial and security system that is responsible for dealing with attacks on constitutional order, but the effectiveness of this system will be put the test in practice over the coming weeks," said Kadic.

He saw the constitutional challenge as posing an existential choice between "either Dodik or Bosnia-Herzegovina" in its centralised form.

A Bosnian court in late February convicted Dodik of disobeying rulings by the high representative for Bosnia-Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt -- the international envoy charged with overseeing the peace accords, whom Dodik regularly insults.

Separately, Bosnian prosecutors on March 12 ordered federal police to bring him in for questioning over accusations that he tried to undermine the country's constitution through his institutional manoeuvres.

He said he had no intention of being arrested and has continued to hold meetings with senior Bosnian Serb officials at the RS presidential palace.

EU troop reinforcements

Washington and Brussels have each denounced the RS's recent measures.

Anticipating a possible escalation of tensions, the 1,500-strong European Union peacekeeping force in the country (EUFOR) sent 300 extra troops there on March 11 as what it called a temporary reinforcement.

Several RS opposition figures have also opposed Dodik's manoeuvres, prompting him to brand them "traitors".

Dodik and his allies "have crossed all the red lines" of politics in the territory, Nebojsa Vukanovic, an opposition lawmaker, told reporters on March 12.

"Through their suicidal behaviour they have left themselves with no way out," he added.

"There is an old Roman saying that 'the closer the empire gets to collapse, the crazier its laws get. That is now being confirmed."

Overnight on March 13-14, Vukanovic's car was set on fire in front of his house.

Transparency International said that "persecution of opposing voices has been legalised... with the sole aim of protecting Mirolad Dodik from prosecution."