Does Lebanese-Israel war loom over gas?

Defending Lebanon’s “only chance” for its economic recovery, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah announced that the movement can stop Israel from drilling and extracting gas from the disputed field of Karish in eastern Mediterranean, issuing an alert of “military escalation.”

“We do commit before the Lebanese people that the resistance is militarily and financially capable of preventing the enemy from extracting oil and gas from the disputed Karish field, and all the enemy’s actions will not protect this ship, this floating platform, or this operation,” he said.

“Frankly speaking, [the resistance] cannot stand idly by in front of the plundering of Lebanon's wealth, the looting of Lebanon's treasure, [which is] the only hope for the Lebanese people, the savior of the Lebanese people. It cannot stand idly by and will not stand idly by, God willing,” he added.

On June 6, the London-based ENERGEAN POWER’s floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel arrived to the Mediterranean to start installing its equipment and operation in the sales gas pipeline in the disputed Karish field, particularly at Line 29 in the exclusive economic zone (EZZ).

In his speech on Thursday evening, Nasrallah said that there are three dangers threatening Lebanon. The first one is that Israel is working on downsizing Lebanon’s area of gas fields and wealth by the ship, which he described as a “Greek vessel.” However, the Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib told Al-Mayadeen TV today, Friday, that the Greek Foreign Ministry has summoned the Lebanese Chargé d'Affairs, saying that the ship in the Mediterranean is not owned by the Greek government.

Secondly, some exploration and drilling companies were banned from working in the Lebanese fields due to a political matter rather than a technical one. “The Americans and the Israelis threatened these companies,” and prevented them from working even in undisputed areas, Nasrallah said. 

It was reported that the French company Total has suspended its gas exploring for Lebanon in Block 9 until reaching a final agreement on the delineation of borders, Lebanese newspaper Al Markazia reported on January 9.

The third danger is emptying the gas fields that extend into the Lebanese waters. “When we explore and dig to extract, we may find nothing, or we may find crumbs […] Here the time factor becomes very important,” Nasrallah said, adding, “The direct goal is to prevent the enemy [Israel] from extracting the gas and the oil from Karish field” regardless if the vessel locates near or inside the disputed area.

Hezbollah “has the financial, military, security, intelligence, logistic and human capabilities to prevent Israel from extracting the disputed gas,” he said.

In response to Nasrallah’s warnings, Israeli Minister of Finance Avigdor Liberman tweeted on Thursday, “No one will dictate to us whether or not to extract gas from the economic waters of the State of Israel. Israel is a sovereign state and will continue to make decisions solely in accordance with its interests regardless of the threats of such or other terrorists.”

“I suggest Nasrallah continue to hide in the bunker; his videos from there do not impress anyone,” he added.

Also, one day earlier, “Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Energy Minister Karin Elharrar warned that Israel is prepared to defend the Karish gas reservoir,” Jerusalem Post reported.

“Military escalation is possible,” Talal Al Owaisi, Professor of Sociology at Lebanese University and researcher in regional issues, told Jusoor Post on Friday.

He added that the only chance to save Lebanon from its deteriorating economy is to extract gas and oil, saying that “the risk is worth taking […] as no one in Lebanon would object to any strikes because this is considered a theft of their wealth.” 

However, he did not rule out that the ship will retreat because this is not in its interest, noting that the ship's insurance has doubled because an open-ended war is possible.

Also, he is of the belief that Israel will not go to war because it may pay a much higher price, and in addition, there is joint cooperation and an operations room between Hezbollah, the Islamic Resistance of Hamas in Gaza and the Revolutionary Guards in Iran.

To locate where exactly the vessel stationed, the Lebanese Army has collected data about the location where it anchored two miles away from the south of the Karish field on the Israeli side, experts told Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

The danger is not only related to the ship’s location, but also to its production, which undoubtedly will pump quantities of Lebanese gas into Israeli pipelines, experts added.

The explored gas in this disputed area would tremendously solve Lebanon’s electricity problem that forced the electricity station to shut down after running out of fuel in October 2021.