Turkey's move against Syria's Kurds hikes tension with West

By AFP/Burcin GERCEK

With Bashar al-Assad gone, Turkey has moved to strike at US-backed Kurdish forces in northeast Syria putting it at odds with Western allies as the top US diplomat arrives Thursday for talks.

The power vacuum left by Assad's ouster has given Turkey a golden opportunity to move against Kurdish forces that it sees as a major security threat.

As the Islamist-led rebels marched on Damascus, Turkish-backed fighters began pushing into Kurdish-held areas like Tal Rifaat and then Manbij. The fighting left at least 218 dead before a US-brokered ceasefire started Wednesday.

Despite the truce, Ankara has insisted it will continue its drive against "terrorist" elements in the region, seeing the Kurdish fighters as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought a decades-long insurgency against Turkey.

"Turkey is doing everything it can to ensure the Kurds emerge weakened from this process" in Syria, said Irfan Aktan, a journalist and expert on Kurdish affairs.

"Ankara is using the pro-Turkish factions in Syria to destroy the semi-autonomous Kurdish administration.

"But for now, this attack has been halted thanks to US intervention," he told AFP.

Key US ally in fighting IS

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control a huge area of northeast Syria where they run a semi-autonomous administration.

A key US ally, the SDF spearheaded an offensive that defeated the Islamic State (IS) group's self-declared caliphate in Syria in 2019. Washington's backing for the group has put it sharply at odds with Ankara.

Mutlu Civiroglu, a Washington-based analyst and expert on the Kurds, said Thursday's lightning visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken would seek to restrain Ankara.

"The region controlled by Kurdish forces is the most stable in Syria, guaranteeing the rights of women and minorities," he told AFP.

Civiroglu called the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group which ousted Assad "a radical Islamist group" and added that "the dissolution of Kurdish autonomy could create instability."

Other Western allies are also concerned at Turkey's actions. Germany has urged Turkey and Israel not to "jeopardise" the chance of a peaceful transition in Syria because of their own "security interests".

Ahead of the visit, Washington, which has some 900 troops battling the Jihadists in Syria, reiterated its backing for the SDF while acknowledging the right of Turkey -- a key NATO ally -- to defend itself against any threat.

Speaking Tuesday, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby said Washington had to pursue IS jihadists, meaning its partnership with the SDF "will continue".

"Where those two goals overlap, or potentially conflict, we will have the appropriate conversations with the Turks about how both those outcomes can be achieved," he said.

Securing a position of strength

For Faik Bulut, an author specialising in the Kurdish question, Ankara was hoping to push Kurdish forces some 30-40 kilometres (up to 20 miles) from its southern border.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Ergodan "would like to take advantage of the vacuum before Donald Trump takes power so he can be in a position of strength during talks with him on Syria," he said.

Erdogan in November said he wanted to discuss the issue of US troops in Syria with Trump.

Bulut said Turkey wanted to "cleanse" the region of SDF forces in the hope they would be replaced by the Kurdish National Council (KNC), a group close to Iraq's Kurdistan Democratic Party which has good ties with Ankara.

By pushing for what Ankara sees as a more acceptable Kurdish leadership, Erdogan could cast himself in a more favourable light.

"That way, Erdogan could assume the role of protector of the Kurds in line with his neo-Ottoman aspirations," he said.

Some observers are asking how Turkey's actions in Syria could impact its own the Kurdish community, which constitutes some 20 percent of the population.

"I wonder how the developments happening in Syria will affect the Kurdish question in Turkey," one Western diplomatic source said on condition of anonymity.

"Turkey's Kurds are closely following Ankara's actions in Syria -- they feel very close to the Kurds there" who are often relatives, Civiroglu said.

But Aktan said events could take a positive turn if it was to jumpstart nascent moves to reopen dialogue on Kurdish affairs.

"Turkey could end up breaking the impasse if it manages to establish some sort of peace with the Kurds, including those in Turkey," he said.