After passing Saied's constitution: Analysts view Tunisia's roadmap as ambiguous

While Tunisians are awaiting the release of the official results of the referendum on the new draft constitution, in which about 2.5 million voters participated, local statistics estimated that it would be passed and implemented. Observers expect that President Kais Saied's first steps will be to issue the rest of the legal texts that will move the country towards presidential rule.

Hassan Al-Zarkouni, director of the Sigma Konsai Foundation, which specializes in opinion polls, said in a program on the state-owned TV channel El Watania 1 on Monday that 25% of the voters participated in the referendum, and 92.3% of those participating in the vote said “yes” to the draft constitution proposed by the president. This outcome is considered a victory for Saied over his opponents and a confirmation of his popularity.

The new draft of the constitution contains 142 articles. It grants broad powers to the head of state, contrary to the 2014 constitution, which provided for a semi-parliamentary system. This caused rivalry and conflict between the three wings of power (the presidency, parliament and government), which was reflected in the deterioration of the situation in the country, according to analysts.

The post-approval phase of the new constitution continues to cause tension in civil society. Ambiguity remains about Saied's upcoming steps, how he will deal with the opposition, the method of electoral management for the House of Representatives, regions and municipalities, and the extent to which the economic solutions proposed by the government will succeed.

New laws

Political researcher and university professor Al-Mazri Tabaqa believes that Saied “will begin to clarify the details of the new laws after the constitution has been formally approved.”

Tabaqa told Jusoor Post, “After the adoption of the new constitution, the appropriate legal texts will be issued, especially with regard to the council of regions and municipalities, and clarification of the method of election.”

“The electoral law and the code of local authorities (municipalities) will be under consideration again, because the new constitution changed the view of local groups as a local authority, and there is still ambiguity surrounding the process of revising or repealing laws,” he added.

“The constitution is a set of texts and chapters that are applied through explanatory orders and laws,” Tabaqa continued.

Economic crisis

The Tunisian political researcher doubted the president's success in improving the economic situation, which is the greatest concern of the Tunisian public. He believes that the new constitution “did not expand on social and economic aspects.”

“The vision of the President of the Republic considers that the constitution is the spirit of the law and does not talk about the economic aspect. But at the same time, the constitution talks about the council of municipalities and regions within a social and economic vision that can change the entire economic situation in view of the issue of the regions,” Tabaqa continued.

“The explanatory texts of the new vision are necessary, because talking about the regions indicates that each region will have the capacity and eligibility for advancement and independence with its own budget within the framework of the general budget,” he added.

Tabaqa pointed out that “the system of regions can play a positive discrimination role, which has harmed disadvantaged parties more than benefiting them.”

Meanwhile, Sohail Mudemegh, a political activist and member of the opposition Democratic Current party in Tunisia, agreed with Tabaqa's opinion that the new draft constitution “does not answer the issues of the economic crisis.”

Mudemegh told Jusoor Post, “Tunisia suffers from chronic structural economic crises that have been accompanied by a global economic crisis, and therefore monetary returns are at their lowest levels.”

“Tunisia suffers from a deficit in the trade balance, which was recently manifested in the shortage of some basic materials and medicines. We have reached the point of threatening the inability to meet the costs of the goods that can be imported,” he added.

He criticized the constitution for not paying attention to the economic aspect, saying, “The constitution in itself does not answer these economic issues and transfers them at the decision level to the head of the executive authority, who will not be held accountable for economic and social choices.”

Mudemegh attacked the lack of clear accountability mechanisms in the constitution, saying, “Who will hold the government accountable; decisions are above accountability and infallible.”

“It is natural for the government to be held accountable in the event of failure. But the head of the executive authority can also fortify the government's activity by dissolving parliament and has all the powers to disable all oversight mechanisms and can dissolve the government,” Mudemegh added.

“When there is a crisis, the government and parliament can be sacrificed, considering their executive and legislative functions,” he continued.

The parties' role

Tabaqa expressed his fear of the expected “weak role” of Tunisian parties in participating in running the country after the adoption of the new constitution.

“The new constitution does not talk about powers, but rather jobs. The first and second chambers have only a legislative role without interfering in the day-to-day management of the country,” he said.

“The conduct of business will be in the hands of the President of the Republic, and he will use a government that will have a president and members. The House of Representatives will have no role except to vote on loan projects, as it was before 2011,” he continued.

Tabaqa believes that this could prevent the parties from participating in the fate of the country through the existing representative blocs in the old formula, so the parties will not have a great role.

Mudemegh explained that even the parties that are currently witnessing a rise, according to what was monitored by opinion polls, will not have a great deal, because the legislative authority has a ratifying role.

He went on to say the “the supervisory authority remained, but with some reservations.”

Opposition confrontations

Regarding the Tunisian president's dealings with the opposition, Mudemegh believes that “the deepening of the economic and social crisis will inevitably lead to crises with the opposition political forces.”

He said the opposition parties will expose the government's practices and try to bring down this system. Therefore, the current system seeks to suppress, restrict and confiscate rights and freedoms through the constitution.

“This constitution gives maximum powers above accountability and oversight, and it is the President of the Republic who decides, considering that his decisions come from donors and lenders, and we are merely subordinate to them,” he added.

For his part, Tabaqa explained that this is the people's constitution. He pointed out that rights and freedoms have become a reality by the people's decision, which is higher than the constitution.

He stressed that “the only original authority is for the people, who have fully recovered it and become the main guardian of rights and freedoms.”

“Whenever there is a threat to freedoms and expression, the people in all their civil manifestations return to the street in order to recover that gain,” he explained.

Possible solutions

The two Tunisian activities, Tabaqa and Mudemegh, referred to a number of proposed solutions to get out of the crisis in Tunisia.

Tabaqa pointed out that there are activities that the state must undertake to modify the distribution of wealth among groups, citizens, and municipalities.

Mudemegh stressed that the state must focus on the areas of health, education and transportation.

However, both Tabaqa and Mudemegh agree that the state will have to abandon the dismantling and weakening of service institutions and the disruption of new appointments under the pretext of putting pressure on costs and raising subsidies.