Egyptian-Turkish relations: From estrangement to exploration

Official visits, phone calls at the ministerial level, and expressions of “appreciation” for some steps after years of tug-of-war. However, relations between Egypt and Turkey are still “swinging between hopes of detente and caution against any actual rapprochement,” according to what some observers estimate.

In a move that some considered “new signs to move forward in the path of normalization between Egypt and Turkey,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke again of high-level talks with Egypt. He said in media statements on Monday that “there is nothing to prevent high-level talks with Egypt in order to normalize relations, which have not witnessed a noticeable development since the start of the exploratory talks between the two countries last year and Ankara's desire to accelerate them.”

Erdogan's statements came days after his Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that the process of normalizing relations with Egypt is going “relatively slowly,” after he said last May that “we will work to take additional steps with Egypt.”

However, this did not receive an official comment from Cairo, whose reactions to this file were often characterized by “extreme reservations and calm.”

Attempts to improve Egyptian-Turkish relations have recently declined due to differences over regional, international and internal Egyptian issues, despite the steps taken by Ankara to show its desire for reconciliation and Egypt sending some supportive signals.

Egyptian diplomats commented on the Turkish president's statements, saying that “Cairo is awaiting steps on the ground and awaits further measures.”

Reconciliation efforts: Official visits and statements

The latest reconciliation efforts between the two countries came last June with the visit of Turkish Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati to Sharm el-Sheikh and his meeting with his Egyptian counterpart, Mohamed Maait, to promote economic and trade cooperation during the meetings of the Islamic Development Bank, with the participation of a number of countries, the most important of which are Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Last year, the two countries began “exploratory diplomatic talks”, which represented the first high-level contact between them since 2013, when relations soured following the ouster of former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, who had strong support from Erdogan.

Egypt considered the Brotherhood a terrorist organization in 2013 and confiscated the funds of a number of its members and arrested many of them, while some of them fled abroad for fear of security prosecution.

The two countries exchanged withdrawal of ambassadors, but the two embassies did not close their doors and continued to work at the chargé d'affairs level and at a low level of representation for the past eight years. However, cooperation on the commercial and economic level remained between both countries.

The efforts of this reconciliation emerged in a step that is the first of its kind in eight years, when a Turkish delegation visited Egypt in early May 2021 headed by Assistant Foreign Minister Sedat Onal. At the top of his agenda was easing tensions between the two countries and pushing for “reconciliation”.

The two countries said in the joint statement that the talks dealt with bilateral and regional issues, including Syria, the eastern Mediterranean and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Among the prominent differences between the two countries is also the conflict in Libya, as each of them supports a party to it, in addition to controlling the waters of the Mediterranean. During these discussions, Egypt asked Turkey to withdraw its forces from Libya, not to interfere in the affairs of Arab countries, to cooperate in the eastern Mediterranean gas file, and to stop supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

On the other hand, Turkey demanded that Egypt not give spaces in any channels to represent the Turkish Fethullah Gulen group, and to coordinate with regard to the Mediterranean gas and demarcate the maritime borders.

Turkey paved the way for this visit two months ago by making its first diplomatic contact with the Egyptians since Morsi's overthrow. The foreign ministers of the two countries had a phone call, and Ankara said the two chiefs of intelligence were also in contact.

Erdogan had said on March 12, 2021 that the two countries had “intelligence, diplomatic and economic” contacts, adding that he hoped for “strong” relations between Cairo and Ankara.

A week after Erdogan's statements, in which he expressed his desire to resume the relationship between the two countries, some steps in support of that path appeared before him. His government asked three Egyptian TV channels based in Istanbul, which focus on Egyptian affairs and which Egypt considers “hostile media”, to suspend their political programs.

A few days later, a phone call came from the Turkish Foreign Minister to his Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry, in April 2021, and an official statement said that the two ministers exchanged congratulations on the occasion of the month of Ramadan. Then followed the first round of talks hosted by Cairo in May 2021, which Turkey described as exploratory consultations, and Egypt said that they were frank and in-depth.

Unresolved issues: The Brotherhood and Libya

A number of observers considered that the fluctuation of Egyptian-Turkish relations until today, despite attempts at rapprochement, is caused by the persistence of some unresolved issues, most notably the Libya and Brotherhood files.

In this regard, former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Alaa Al-Hadidi said that “in general, since the beginning of 2021, relations between Ankara and Cairo have witnessed a great transformation, because at a time when both Ankara and Cairo are facing more American pressure under the administration of President Joe Biden, the two countries are trying reconciliation with their neighbors.”

Hadidi told Jusoor Post, “Turkey is trying to reformulate its foreign policies with Egypt and the Gulf states allied with the United States, represented by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Egypt is also trying to achieve balance in the Middle East.”

“There is a problem regarding the Turkish role in Libya, as it has not been agreed upon. Turkey has brought in mercenaries, and this is an unacceptable situation for Egypt,” he added.

Hadidi explained that the Brotherhood's file had not been resolved to the satisfaction of Egypt. He said that “the organization's elements are still holding meetings in Turkey, albeit in an unannounced manner.”

“Cairo believes that naming the Egyptian ambassador to Turkey, and vice versa, will require a real political approach to reach solutions on all other issues, including the ongoing Turkish behavior in the eastern Mediterranean file,” Hadidi said.

“Cairo looks to its allies in the eastern Mediterranean, especially Cyprus and Greece, and Egypt cannot sacrifice both sides in exchange for dealing with Turkey. That is why Cairo is moving in a huge space of caution and without haste. It also conveyed real messages of reassurance to both parties in the event of reaching an agreement with Turkey, even if initially,” he added.

“Perhaps the Turkish side understands the nature of the Egyptian move and its endeavor to mitigate any possible repercussions in the event of the official resumption of contacts between Cairo and Ankara,” he continued.

Former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister Gamal Bayoumi agreed with Hadidi regarding the Brotherhood file. He explained that “there are still elements of the organization residing in Turkey and inciting against Egypt.”

“There are contacts between Egypt and Turkey, and trade relations are growing, but political relations are in a waiting state, and the scene is in a state of dormancy,” Bayoumi said.

He pointed out that “there are still steps that Turkey must take, because statements alone are not enough, and steps are required on the ground,” explaining that “the crisis is basically the remaining points.”