Djibouti communique between Somalia and Somaliland: Good but conditioned step

Somalia and Somaliland signed an eight-point communique on Friday, December 29, marking an alleged breakthrough after two days of negotiations.

The communique was signed by Somali Interior Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi and his counterpart from Somaliland, Mohamed Kahin, while the negotiations were mediated by Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh.

The agreement stipulates a commitment to resume talks within 30 days and to establish technical committees to supervise the discussions.

Background

In the early 1980s, the Somali National Movement was founded and led a war to liberate what was formerly known as British Somalia, which included present-day Somaliland within its borders. The movement, whose core is made up of the Isaaq clan, faced brutal repression from former President Mohamed Siad Barre, with the battles part of the Somali Civil War.

Somaliland, with its capital, Hargeisa, is a poor and isolated region with a population of about 6 million people. It has enjoyed relative stability since declaring its independence from Somalia unilaterally in 1991 after the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime, while Somalia has suffered from decades of civil war and the insurgency of the Al-Shabaab terrorist movement.

Negotiations

According to Salem Abdi, a journalist specializing in the Horn of Africa, the two parties expressed on Friday, December 29, their willingness to support previous agreements from 2012 to 2020, which provided Somaliland with a special arrangement, enabling it to receive international aid and development projects without passing through Mogadishu, even if it yielded only limited tangible results.

“As much as Mogadishu’s acknowledgment of the Siad Barre government’s atrocities in the late 1980s against Hargeisa represents a notable concession, the proposed technical committee, to facilitate talks and draw up a road map within a month, faces a huge challenge. Its effectiveness depends on its inclusion of all clans and may require parliamentary approval, which would hinder the progress of the talks,” Abdi told Jusoor Post.

Last September, the Somaliland government rejected Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's offer to mediate talks on the reunification of the two entities, declaring that Hargeisa would not agree to hold talks with Mogadishu unless the agenda dealt with the future of the two entities as separate states.

“Any dialogue that transpires between Somaliland and Somalia will not discuss unification, but rather how the two previously united countries can move forward separately,” a Somaliland Foreign Ministry statement said last September.

Conditional success

“Informed sources indicate that there is an implicit understanding on security cooperation, including issues of oil exploration permits and the Berbera port military base. The agreement also includes a clause urging both parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the ongoing talks,” Abdi said.

However, the progress of the negotiations remains uncertain, which opens possibilities for contradictory paths. The biggest challenge remains the difference between the two countries' visions for the future, especially when it comes to Somaliland's self-sovereignty over its lands.

“The conflicts in Khatumo State represent an obstacle to any talks between Somalia and Somaliland. Fighting broke out between forces affiliated with the Somaliland government and clan militias in and around the town of Las Anod last February,” Abdi said.

“The militias seek to secede from Somaliland and establish their own state in Khatumo State, which consists of parts of three governorates in Somalia: Sol, Sanaag, and Ain, with its capital, Las Anod,” he added.

“While avoiding mentioning the SSC-Khatumo, Somaliland insists that Mogadishu should not recognize the SSC administration as an independent member of any proposed federation,” Abdi concluded.